{ "schema_version": 1, "note": "Actual collected snapshots only. No synthetic backfill; versions are not directly comparable.", "snapshots": [ { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 36, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": 28, "status": "Positive net flow over seven recorded dates", "available": true, "source_url": "https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/", "source_observation_date": "2026-10-23", "sampling": "Last seven recorded provider dates; not seven raw hourly values.", "unit": "USD millions per reported date", "mean_net_flow_m": 31.985714285714284, "reported_date_count": 7, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T20:22:52Z" }, "vol": { "score": 22, "status": "Below-baseline daily-return volatility", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.016521293370171303, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.02045723458497582, "relative_volatility": 0.8076015016372181, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-24T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T20:47:09.594626Z" }, "leverage": { "score": 37, "status": "Modest funding premium in the contract sample", "available": true, "funding_rate_decimal": 6.916e-05, "funding_rate_percent": 0.006915999999999999, "interval_hours": 8, "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "venue": "Bybit", "unit": "percent per 8-hour funding interval", "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "source_observed_at": "2026-10-25T20:44:54.029000Z", "scope": "One linear perpetual contract; not market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T20:44:54.048684Z" }, "stable": { "score": 23, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.15717811882749946, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-25T20:49:47.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T20:50:42.315536Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 48, "status": "Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T20:50:44.914216Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 31, "max_indicator": 48, "api_success_count": 5, "updated": "2026-10-25T21:35:37Z", "date": "2026-10-25", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 36/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 5/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 36/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 5/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: 28/100. Positive net flow over seven recorded dates\n\nvol: 22/100. Below-baseline daily-return volatility\n\nleverage: 37/100. Modest funding premium in the contract sample\n\nstable: 23/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 48/100. Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 34, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": 28, "status": "Positive net flow over seven recorded dates", "available": true, "source_url": "https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/", "source_observation_date": "2026-10-23", "sampling": "Last seven recorded provider dates; not seven raw hourly values.", "unit": "USD millions per reported date", "mean_net_flow_m": 31.985714285714277, "reported_date_count": 7, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T10:09:04Z" }, "vol": { "score": 22, "status": "Below-baseline daily-return volatility", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.01631777931970873, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.02046028446659841, "relative_volatility": 0.7975343327385132, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-25T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T10:09:46.909416Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 23, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.15704506096552123, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-26T10:08:51.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T10:09:51.241525Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 47, "status": "Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T10:09:52.113301Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 29, "max_indicator": 47, "api_success_count": 4, "updated": "2026-10-26T10:09:52Z", "date": "2026-10-26", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 34/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 34/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: 28/100. Positive net flow over seven recorded dates\n\nvol: 22/100. Below-baseline daily-return volatility\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 23/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 47/100. Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 33, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": 26, "status": "Positive net flow over seven recorded dates", "available": true, "source_url": "https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/", "source_observation_date": "2026-10-26", "sampling": "Last seven recorded provider dates; not seven raw hourly values.", "unit": "USD millions per reported date", "mean_net_flow_m": 47.0142857142857, "reported_date_count": 7, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T10:34:10Z" }, "vol": { "score": 22, "status": "Below-baseline daily-return volatility", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.016195484466061543, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.02048310168684241, "relative_volatility": 0.7906753925097646, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-26T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T10:34:48.528991Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 22, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.15835525651885152, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-27T10:33:58.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T10:34:52.789235Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 45, "status": "Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T10:34:53.836219Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 28, "max_indicator": 45, "api_success_count": 4, "updated": "2026-10-27T10:34:53Z", "date": "2026-10-27", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 33/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 33/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: 26/100. Positive net flow over seven recorded dates\n\nvol: 22/100. Below-baseline daily-return volatility\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 22/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 45/100. Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 34, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": 24, "status": "Positive net flow over seven recorded dates", "available": true, "source_url": "https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/", "source_observation_date": "2026-10-27", "sampling": "Last seven recorded provider dates; not seven raw hourly values.", "unit": "USD millions per reported date", "mean_net_flow_m": 83.92857142857143, "reported_date_count": 7, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T11:21:08Z" }, "vol": { "score": 21, "status": "Below-baseline daily-return volatility", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.016046742688147764, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.02046674248769218, "relative_volatility": 0.7840398977901629, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-27T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T11:21:51.237886Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 24, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.1546617619764138, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-28T11:20:58.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T11:21:55.530765Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 49, "status": "Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T11:21:56.387628Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 28, "max_indicator": 49, "api_success_count": 4, "updated": "2026-10-28T11:21:56Z", "date": "2026-10-28", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 34/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 34/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: 24/100. Positive net flow over seven recorded dates\n\nvol: 21/100. Below-baseline daily-return volatility\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 24/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 49/100. Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 33, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": 28, "status": "Positive net flow over seven recorded dates", "available": true, "source_url": "https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/", "source_observation_date": "2026-10-28", "sampling": "Last seven recorded provider dates; not seven raw hourly values.", "unit": "USD millions per reported date", "mean_net_flow_m": 28.299999999999994, "reported_date_count": 7, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T11:31:19Z" }, "vol": { "score": 18, "status": "Below-baseline daily-return volatility", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.014332745214011655, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.020176834410551805, "relative_volatility": 0.7103564871660993, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-28T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T11:32:03.065411Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 23, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.15654795443852876, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-29T11:30:50.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T11:32:07.431696Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 46, "status": "Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T11:32:08.341277Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 27, "max_indicator": 46, "api_success_count": 4, "updated": "2026-10-29T11:32:08Z", "date": "2026-10-29", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 33/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 33/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: 28/100. Positive net flow over seven recorded dates\n\nvol: 18/100. Below-baseline daily-return volatility\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 23/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 46/100. Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 39, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": 28, "status": "Positive net flow over seven recorded dates", "available": true, "source_url": "https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/", "source_observation_date": "2026-10-29", "sampling": "Last seven recorded provider dates; not seven raw hourly values.", "unit": "USD millions per reported date", "mean_net_flow_m": 27.44285714285713, "reported_date_count": 7, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T11:24:53Z" }, "vol": { "score": 13, "status": "Below-baseline daily-return volatility", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.01155421008129099, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.02044197530465706, "relative_volatility": 0.5652198434394315, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-29T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T11:25:36.817098Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 22, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.16130543005460385, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-30T11:24:57.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T11:25:41.179449Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 63, "status": "Elevated depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T11:25:42.021778Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 29, "max_indicator": 63, "api_success_count": 4, "updated": "2026-10-30T11:25:42Z", "date": "2026-10-30", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 39/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 39/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: 28/100. Positive net flow over seven recorded dates\n\nvol: 13/100. Below-baseline daily-return volatility\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 22/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 63/100. Elevated depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 43, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": 54, "status": "Negative flow over seven recorded dates", "available": true, "source_url": "https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/", "source_observation_date": "2026-10-30", "sampling": "Last seven recorded provider dates; not seven raw hourly values.", "unit": "USD millions per reported date", "mean_net_flow_m": -139.41428571428574, "reported_date_count": 7, "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T10:55:58Z" }, "vol": { "score": 17, "status": "Below-baseline daily-return volatility", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.013815163086541677, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.020646065458802442, "relative_volatility": 0.6691426564595913, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-30T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T10:56:38.722646Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 21, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.16186315354559638, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-31T10:55:57.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T10:56:43.069108Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 57, "status": "Elevated depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T10:56:43.738672Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 37, "max_indicator": 57, "api_success_count": 4, "updated": "2026-10-31T10:56:43Z", "date": "2026-10-31", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 43/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 43/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: 54/100. Negative flow over seven recorded dates\n\nvol: 17/100. Below-baseline daily-return volatility\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 21/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 57/100. Elevated depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 41, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": 54, "status": "Negative flow over seven recorded dates", "available": true, "source_url": "https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/", "source_observation_date": "2026-10-30", "sampling": "Last seven recorded provider dates; not seven raw hourly values.", "unit": "USD millions per reported date", "mean_net_flow_m": -139.41428571428574, "reported_date_count": 7, "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T11:50:45Z" }, "vol": { "score": 18, "status": "Below-baseline daily-return volatility", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.014697906875026789, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.02065337921538586, "relative_volatility": 0.7116465892456714, "source_observed_at": "2026-10-31T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T11:51:28.362030Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 22, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.1606772864950222, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-01T11:50:53.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T11:51:32.656421Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 50, "status": "Elevated depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T11:51:33.485034Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 36, "max_indicator": 54, "api_success_count": 4, "updated": "2026-11-01T11:51:33Z", "date": "2026-11-01", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 41/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 41/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: 54/100. Negative flow over seven recorded dates\n\nvol: 18/100. Below-baseline daily-return volatility\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 22/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 50/100. Elevated depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 30, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": null, "available": false, "status": "Data unavailable: latest seven source rows include an unreported session.", "source_url": "https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T13:30:03Z" }, "vol": { "score": 19, "status": "Below-baseline daily-return volatility", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.015050024537444456, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.0206356400118244, "relative_volatility": 0.7293219172664701, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-01T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T13:30:45.886354Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 22, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.1609892729752969, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-02T13:29:49.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T13:30:50.153618Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 40, "status": "Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T13:30:50.872294Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 26, "max_indicator": 40, "api_success_count": 3, "updated": "2026-11-02T13:30:50Z", "date": "2026-11-02", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 30/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 3/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 30/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 3/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: Unavailable. Data unavailable: latest seven source rows include an unreported session.\n\nvol: 19/100. Below-baseline daily-return volatility\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 22/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 40/100. Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "correction_note": "Corrected 3 November 2026: withheld ETF component based on a pending zero-total row. Other component observations and source timestamps are unchanged." }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 35, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T12:48:16Z" }, "vol": { "score": 20, "status": "Below-baseline daily-return volatility", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.015330295236046341, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.020694859035939803, "relative_volatility": 0.7407779492202835, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-02T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T12:49:00.014923Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 22, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.16066490322004717, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-03T12:48:43.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T12:49:04.372029Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 49, "status": "Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T12:49:05.252197Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 28, "max_indicator": 49, "api_success_count": 3, "updated": "2026-11-03T12:49:05Z", "date": "2026-11-03", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 35/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 3/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 35/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 3/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nvol: 20/100. Below-baseline daily-return volatility\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 22/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 49/100. Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 34, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T12:59:29Z" }, "vol": { "score": 20, "status": "Below-baseline daily-return volatility", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.01562194933071105, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.020717234617299376, "relative_volatility": 0.7540557231352855, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-03T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T13:00:12.325415Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 23, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.1582053086484862, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-04T12:59:55.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T13:00:16.614142Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 47, "status": "Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T13:00:17.435741Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 28, "max_indicator": 47, "api_success_count": 3, "updated": "2026-11-04T13:00:17Z", "date": "2026-11-04", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 34/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 3/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 34/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 3/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nvol: 20/100. Below-baseline daily-return volatility\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 23/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 47/100. Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 37, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T13:12:28Z" }, "vol": { "score": 31, "status": "Daily-return volatility near the available baseline", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.021460812140375773, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.02102210750353557, "relative_volatility": 1.0208687276842447, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-04T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T13:13:13.049719Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 23, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.15568217444157945, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-05T13:12:57.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T13:13:17.269157Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 47, "status": "Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T13:13:18.175800Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 33, "max_indicator": 47, "api_success_count": 3, "updated": "2026-11-05T13:13:18Z", "date": "2026-11-05", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 37/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 3/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 37/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 3/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nvol: 31/100. Daily-return volatility near the available baseline\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 23/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 47/100. Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 43, "zone": "Midrange", "zone_color": "#06b6d4", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T12:57:19Z" }, "vol": { "score": 43, "status": "Daily-return volatility near the available baseline", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.02942402734213235, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.022100986141441976, "relative_volatility": 1.3313445451630233, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-05T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T12:58:03.024646Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 21, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.16228231034690854, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-06T12:56:52.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T12:58:07.383605Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 52, "status": "Elevated depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T12:58:08.205275Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 39, "max_indicator": 52, "api_success_count": 3, "updated": "2026-11-06T12:58:08Z", "date": "2026-11-06", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 43/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 3/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 43/100 (Midrange) under the published rules, with 3/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nvol: 43/100. Daily-return volatility near the available baseline\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 21/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 52/100. Elevated depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" }, { "methodology_version": "2", "methodology_note": "Experimental descriptive rules, not a validated risk or price forecast. Version 2 uses closed UTC daily returns and one explicitly eight-hour Bybit BTCUSDT funding sample. Earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "composite_score": 53, "zone": "Elevated", "zone_color": "#f59e0b", "indicators": { "etf": { "score": 67, "status": "Negative flow over seven recorded dates", "available": true, "source_url": "https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/", "source_observation_date": "2026-11-06", "sampling": "Last seven recorded provider dates; not seven raw hourly values.", "unit": "USD millions per reported date", "mean_net_flow_m": -272.5285714285714, "reported_date_count": 7, "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T11:43:55Z" }, "vol": { "score": 41, "status": "Daily-return volatility near the available baseline", "available": true, "daily_observations": 90, "recent_return_count": 7, "baseline_return_count": 89, "daily_return_stddev_recent": 0.028318188135411627, "daily_return_stddev_baseline": 0.022101049436412466, "relative_volatility": 1.2813051351650364, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-06T23:00:00Z", "sampling": "Last observed price per closed UTC date. Seven daily returns versus the available daily baseline; gaps are not interpolated.", "unit": "Ratio of daily-return standard deviations", "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/bitcoin/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T11:44:38.314436Z" }, "leverage": { "score": null, "status": "Data unavailable", "available": false, "source_url": "https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT", "retrieved_at": null }, "stable": { "score": 21, "status": "Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio", "available": true, "source_url": "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&ids=tether,usd-coin,bitcoin&order=market_cap_desc", "scope": "USDT plus USDC market capitalisation divided by BTC market capitalisation; not cash available to buy Bitcoin.", "unit": "Market-cap ratio", "market_cap_ratio": 0.16196121057904936, "source_observed_at": "2026-11-07T11:43:57.000Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T11:44:42.570593Z" }, "orderbook": { "score": 47, "status": "Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample", "available": true, "source_url": "https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/depth?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=5000", "scope": "One exchange snapshot, limited to returned levels and at most 2% from midpoint. It is not market-wide executable liquidity.", "quote_currency": "USDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T11:44:43.479873Z" } }, "weighted_avg": 46, "max_indicator": 67, "api_success_count": 4, "updated": "2026-11-07T11:44:43Z", "date": "2026-11-07", "summary_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 53/100 (Elevated) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.", "analysis_text": "Experimental descriptive index: 53/100 (Elevated) under the published rules, with 4/5 components available. This is not a probability of a crash, a measurement of total leverage or a trading recommendation. Methodology version 2 corrects funding units and uses closed UTC daily returns; earlier versions are not directly comparable.\n\nThe composite is 70% of the weighted mean of available components plus 30% of their maximum score. Missing components are excluded and remaining weights renormalised; at least three inputs are required. Changing source coverage can change the score without a market event.\n\nVolatility compares seven daily returns with the available daily baseline, sampled once per closed UTC date. Funding uses the absolute eight-hour percentage for one Bybit BTCUSDT perpetual contract. It is a funding-premium proxy, not proof of market-wide leverage or liquidation risk.\n\nStablecoin market capitalisation is not deployable cash. Order-book depth covers one exchange and only the returned levels within the specified range. ETF aggregates are provider-reported and can have incomplete fund attribution. These inputs do not establish a cause of Bitcoin price changes.\n\netf: 67/100. Negative flow over seven recorded dates\n\nvol: 41/100. Daily-return volatility near the available baseline\n\nleverage: Unavailable. Data unavailable\n\nstable: 21/100. Higher stablecoin-to-BTC market-cap ratio\n\norderbook: 47/100. Intermediate depth/imbalance reading in the exchange sample" } ] }